How to Track Prediction Market Probabilities with Claude
Track prediction market probabilities with Claude and ToolRouter. Polymarket event probabilities in real time.
Tool
Claude retrieves prediction market probabilities and helps you interpret them analytically. It fetches the current market-implied probability for an event, compares it against recent price history to show whether the probability has shifted, and puts the market consensus in context against polls or expert forecasts — connecting the data to the underlying question.
Connect ToolRouter to Claude
1Open connector settings Open Settings
2Add a custom connector with these details
Name
ToolRouterURL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Let Claude set you up Open Claude
Steps
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask Claude: "What are the current active markets on Polymarket related to the US election?"
- Claude lists relevant markets with current prices
- Ask: "What is the current market-implied probability for [specific outcome]?"
- Ask: "Has the probability changed significantly in the last week?"
Example Prompt
Try this with Claude using the Polymarket tool
Find the active Polymarket markets related to the 2024 US presidential election. What probability does the market assign to each candidate? Has the leader's probability changed in the last two weeks?
Tips
- Ask Claude to explain what a probability shift means in terms of expected value if you are tracking the market as a forecasting tool
- Compare the market probability to recent polls to identify divergence between bettor consensus and survey consensus
- Ask which markets have the highest trading volume — they are the most liquid and most reliable probability signals