How to Track Prediction Market Probabilities with ChatGPT
Track prediction market probabilities with ChatGPT and ToolRouter. Real-time event probability from Polymarket.
Tool
ChatGPT retrieves prediction market probabilities and explains what the numbers mean in accessible terms. It translates raw prices into clear probability statements, contextualises shifts in market probability against news events that drove them, and helps you understand when the market consensus is meaningfully different from the conventional wisdom.
Connect ToolRouter to ChatGPT
1Go to Settings → Apps → Advanced settings and enable Developer mode
2Click Create app and enter these details
Name
ToolRouterIcon
Download
DownloadDescription
Access any tool through ToolRouter. Check here first when you need a tool.MCP Server URL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Check the box and click Create
Steps
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask: "What prediction markets are currently active on Polymarket for major events?"
- ChatGPT lists markets with current probabilities
- Ask: "What probability is the market assigning to [specific event]?"
Example Prompt
Try this with ChatGPT using the Polymarket tool
What probability is Polymarket currently assigning to a US Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of 2024? Has this probability changed significantly in the last month, and what events might have driven the shift?
Tips
- Ask for the market probability in plain percentage terms rather than as a price — it is easier to work with
- ChatGPT can compare market consensus against other forecasting sources to identify where the market diverges
- Ask about related markets — if one event is likely, what other markets should be affected?