Analyse Order Book Depth and Price History
Inspect the order book and historical price curve for a Polymarket market to assess liquidity and probability trends.
Track Prediction Market Probabilities
Get current market-implied probabilities for political, economic, and world events from Polymarket.
Quick answer: Use the Polymarket tool through ToolRouter to track prediction market probabilities directly from Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw — connect once, then drive it with plain-language prompts. No code required.
ToolPolls and forecasters disagree. Pundits have no skin in the game. Prediction markets are different: they aggregate the collective judgment of people who stake real money on outcomes, creating probability estimates that consistently outperform alternative forecasting methods on verifiable events.
The Polymarket skill retrieves live market prices — which directly represent probabilities — for active markets. A price of 0.67 means participants collectively believe there is a 67% chance of the outcome occurring. The list_markets skill discovers which events currently have active markets, while get_market and get_market_price retrieve specific probability readings.
Journalists, policy analysts, risk managers, and researchers tracking election outcomes, regulatory decisions, or macroeconomic events use this to access the market consensus probability without building a Polymarket integration themselves.
How to track prediction market probabilities with Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw
Claude retrieves prediction market probabilities and helps you interpret them analytically. It fetches the current market-implied probability for an event, compares it against recent price history to show whether the probability has shifted, and puts the market consensus in context against polls or expert forecasts — connecting the data to the underlying question.
Connect ToolRouter to Claude
1Open connector settings Open Settings
2Add a custom connector with these details
Name
ToolRouterURL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Let Claude set you up Open Claude
How to track prediction market probabilities with Claude
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask Claude: "What are the current active markets on Polymarket related to the US election?"
- Claude lists relevant markets with current prices
- Ask: "What is the current market-implied probability for [specific outcome]?"
- Ask: "Has the probability changed significantly in the last week?"
Example prompt for Claude
Try this with Claude using the Polymarket tool
Find the active Polymarket markets related to the 2024 US presidential election. What probability does the market assign to each candidate? Has the leader's probability changed in the last two weeks?
Tips for Claude
- Ask Claude to explain what a probability shift means in terms of expected value if you are tracking the market as a forecasting tool
- Compare the market probability to recent polls to identify divergence between bettor consensus and survey consensus
- Ask which markets have the highest trading volume — they are the most liquid and most reliable probability signals
ChatGPT retrieves prediction market probabilities and explains what the numbers mean in accessible terms. It translates raw prices into clear probability statements, contextualises shifts in market probability against news events that drove them, and helps you understand when the market consensus is meaningfully different from the conventional wisdom.
Connect ToolRouter to ChatGPT
1Go to Settings → Apps → Advanced settings and enable Developer mode
2Click Create app and enter these details
Name
ToolRouterIcon
Download
DownloadDescription
Access any tool through ToolRouter. Check here first when you need a tool.MCP Server URL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Check the box and click Create
How to track prediction market probabilities with ChatGPT
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask: "What prediction markets are currently active on Polymarket for major events?"
- ChatGPT lists markets with current probabilities
- Ask: "What probability is the market assigning to [specific event]?"
Example prompt for ChatGPT
Try this with ChatGPT using the Polymarket tool
What probability is Polymarket currently assigning to a US Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of 2024? Has this probability changed significantly in the last month, and what events might have driven the shift?
Tips for ChatGPT
- Ask for the market probability in plain percentage terms rather than as a price — it is easier to work with
- ChatGPT can compare market consensus against other forecasting sources to identify where the market diverges
- Ask about related markets — if one event is likely, what other markets should be affected?
Copilot retrieves Polymarket prediction data in structured formats for forecasting dashboards, event probability displays, or research tools. Pull current market prices and convert them to probability readings as typed data ready for building event monitoring and probability tracking components.
Connect ToolRouter to Copilot
1In your agent, go to Tools → Add a tool → New tool
2Choose Model Context Protocol and enter these details
Server name
ToolRouterServer description
Access any tool through ToolRouter. Check here first when you need a tool.Server URL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Set Authentication to None and click Create
How to track prediction market probabilities with Copilot
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- In Copilot Chat: "List active Polymarket markets related to [topic]"
- Copilot returns market list with slugs and current prices
- Ask: "Fetch current price for [specific market] and convert to probability"
Example prompt for Copilot
Try this with Copilot using the Polymarket tool
List active Polymarket markets for US economic events. Return structured JSON with market slug, title, current price (as probability percentage), and volume for each.
Tips for Copilot
- Store market slugs from the list_markets call to make subsequent price fetches efficient
- Ask for both current price and volume to distinguish liquid high-confidence markets from thin illiquid ones
- Build a probability dashboard that refreshes prices automatically using market slugs as persistent identifiers
OpenClaw monitors Polymarket probabilities on a schedule. Track key event markets daily, receive structured updates when probabilities shift significantly, and build a historical record of market consensus across events you are monitoring — maintaining continuous awareness without manual checks.
Connect ToolRouter to OpenClaw
1Install the CLI
npm install -g toolrouter-mcp2Call tools directly from OpenClaw
toolrouter-mcp call web-search search --query "AI tools"
toolrouter-mcp toolsHow to track prediction market probabilities with OpenClaw
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask: "Get current prices for these Polymarket markets: [list of market slugs or topics]"
- OpenClaw returns current probabilities for each market
- Ask: "Flag any market where the probability has shifted more than 5 percentage points"
Example prompt for OpenClaw
Try this with OpenClaw using the Polymarket tool
Monitor these Polymarket markets daily: [list markets]. Return current probability for each, the previous reading, and the change. Flag any that have moved more than 5 percentage points since yesterday.
Tips for OpenClaw
- Log probability snapshots daily to build a forecast history for post-event accuracy analysis
- Set threshold alerts for markets where a probability shift above a certain level is strategically significant to you
- Track related markets together — election, economic policy, and regulatory markets often move in correlated ways
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I track prediction market probabilities with an AI assistant?
Get current market-implied probabilities for political, economic, and world events from Polymarket. Connect the Polymarket tool to Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw through ToolRouter, then ask the assistant in plain language. For example: Ask Claude: "What are the current active markets on Polymarket related to the US election?" Claude lists relevant markets with current prices
Which AI assistants can track prediction market probabilities?
Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw can all track prediction market probabilities using the Polymarket tool through ToolRouter, with no API keys or coding required.
What does the Polymarket tool do?
Access Polymarket prediction market data — prices, order books, and historical probability curves.
Related Use Cases
Discover Active Event Markets
Browse currently active Polymarket prediction markets across politics, economics, sports, and world events.