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AI tools that help actuaries research mortality trends, calculate insurance reserves, analyze claims data, and model catastrophe scenarios.
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Pre-Pandemic Trend
Ages 60–75: 1.4–1.8% annual mortality improvement 2015–2019
COVID-19 Impact (2020–21)
15–22% excess mortality for ages 60–75 — improvement halted
Post-Pandemic Rebound
Partially recovered by 2022–2024 but 0.4–0.7% below pre-pandemic trend
SSA 2024 Projection
0.71% annual improvement for ages 65–75 going forward
Annuity Reserve Implication
Add ~1.8 months longevity load vs 2019 assumptions
Mortality trend research for life and annuity products
Research current mortality experience data, life expectancy trends, and emerging health risks to update actuarial assumptions. Pull cited academic and epidemiological sources rather than relying on stale textbook data.
Research mortality improvement trends for US males aged 60–75 from 2015–2024. I need to update our annuity valuation assumptions. Include COVID-19 excess mortality by age cohort and the post-pandemic rebound.
Compiled from CDC, SSA, and 6 peer-reviewed papers. Key findings: males 60–75 saw 15–22% excess mortality in 2020–2021. Mortality improvement rates for 2022–2024 partially rebounded but remain below pre-pandemic trend by 0.4–0.7 improvement factors. SSA 2024 trustees report projects improvement at 0.71% per year for ages 65–75 going forward. For annuity reserves, this suggests adding approximately 1.8 months of additional longevity load versus 2019 assumptions.
ToolRouter research
Sources Compiled
CDC, SSA, and 6 peer-reviewed papers
2020–21 Excess Mortality
15–22% for males 60–75 — COVID-19 impact
Post-Pandemic Recovery
Partially rebounded but 0.4–0.7% below pre-pandemic trend
SSA 2024 Projection
0.71% annual improvement for ages 65–75 going forward
Reserve Implication
Add ~1.8 months longevity load vs 2019 annuity assumptions
Insurance reserve and premium calculations
Calculate net single premiums, annual premiums, and IBNR reserves for life, health, and property and casualty products. Model the sensitivity of reserves to changes in discount rates, mortality assumptions, and lapse rates.
Calculate the annual premium for a whole life policy: female age 35, $500K benefit. Assumptions: mortality 55% of 2017 CSO table, lapse 3% per year, expenses $85 first year / $40 renewal, 3.5% discount rate, target 12% ROI.
Net single premium (NSP): $148,200. Level annual premium: $5,840 (using $1 of premium factor at 3.5% discount). With 12% ROI loading and expenses: gross annual premium = $7,280. Monthly: $620. Sensitivity: if discount rate rises to 4.5%, gross premium falls to $6,820. If mortality worsens by 10%, premium rises to $7,520.
ToolRouter calculate_premium
Net Single Premium
$148,200 at 3.5% discount rate
Level Annual Gross Premium
$7,280 with expenses and 12% ROI loading
Monthly Premium
$620/month
Sensitivity at 4.5%
Gross premium falls to $6,820 (-6.3%)
Mortality +10%
Gross premium rises to $7,520 (+3.3%)
Catastrophe risk research and modeling inputs
Research historical loss data for hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and wildfires to update catastrophe model assumptions. Pull frequency-severity data from authoritative sources to benchmark against vendor model outputs.
I need catastrophe model input data for Florida hurricane risk. Research: Category 3+ hurricane landfalls in Florida since 1970, average insured losses per event, and the industry loss estimates for the 1-in-100-year return period event.
Compiled from NOAA, III, and AIR/RMS published studies. Florida Cat 3+ landfalls since 1970: 14 events. Median insured loss (2024$): $4.8B. Largest: Ian (2022) $60B insured, Andrew (1992) $32B (2024$). 1-in-100 year loss (per major cat model consensus): $85–105B industry insured. Your market share determines specific PML. Note: 2022–2024 data suggests cat model revision upward by 15–20% due to secondary perils (surge, inland flood) underestimation.
ToolRouter research
EventYearCategory
Hurricane Ian2022Cat 4
Hurricane Michael2018Cat 5
Hurricane Irma2017Cat 4
Hurricane Andrew1992Cat 5
14 Cat 3+ landfalls 1970–2024 · Median insured loss $4.8B · 1-in-100 yr: $85–105B
Interest rate sensitivity analysis for reserves
Monitor long-term Treasury yields and model the impact of rate changes on life insurance and annuity reserves. Prepare sensitivity analyses showing how a 100bp or 200bp rate shift moves the present value of policyholder obligations.
Pull current 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields and show me the trend over the past 2 years. Then calculate how a 100bp decline in our 4.2% discount rate would affect reserves on a $2B portfolio of 20-year level term policies.
10-year Treasury: 4.38% (down from 5.02% peak Oct 2023). 30-year: 4.54%. 2-year trend shows peak rates in 2023 and gradual decline. Reserve impact at 3.2% discount rate vs 4.2%: reserve increases by approximately $312M (15.6%) on the $2B portfolio. Duration of liabilities is approximately 12 years — every 100bp shift moves reserves by ~12%. Recommend flagging to management if rates decline below 3.5%.
ToolRouter get_rates
10-Year Treasury
30-Year Treasury
ToolRouter calculate_reserves
Current Reserve at 4.2%
$2,000M baseline
Reserve at 3.2% (−100bp)
$2,312M (+15.6% / +$312M)
Reserve at 2.2% (−200bp)
$2,648M (+32.4% / +$648M)
Duration Rule of Thumb
Every 100bp decline ≈ 12% reserve increase (12-yr duration)
Health insurance claims trend research
Research medical cost trend rates, utilization patterns, and emerging high-cost conditions to update health insurance pricing and IBNR assumptions. Pull claims trend data from industry studies and actuarial publications.
Research health insurance medical cost trend for 2025–2026. I need trend factors for: inpatient, outpatient, pharmacy, and behavioral health. Also look up the annual cost of GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy) per member and their projected impact on obesity-related claims.
Medical cost trends 2025–2026 (Milliman MCAS, Mercer, Willis Towers Watson sources): Inpatient 5.8%, Outpatient 8.2%, Pharmacy 11.4% (GLP-1 driving), Behavioral Health 9.1%. GLP-1 annual cost per member on therapy: $13,000–$17,000 (Ozempic) to $17,000–$20,000 (Wegovy). Current penetration: 3.8% of commercially insured adults. Projected obesity-related claim savings: $800–$1,200 per treated member per year — but payback period for premium impact is 5–7 years.
ToolRouter research
Inpatient Hospital
+5.8% trend (Milliman MCAS)
Outpatient Hospital
+8.2% trend
Pharmacy (GLP-1 driven)
+11.4% trend — GLP-1 drugs major driver
Behavioral Health
+9.1% trend — demand surge post-pandemic
GLP-1 Annual Cost/Member
$13,000–$20,000 · 3.8% of commercially insured adults
Ready-to-use prompts
US mortality trend research
Research US all-cause mortality improvement rates by age group (45–55, 55–65, 65–75, 75–85) from 2015–2024. Include the COVID-19 excess mortality impact by cohort, the post-pandemic rebound pattern, and SSA projections for future improvement rates. I am updating our annuity assumption study.
Term life premium calculation
Calculate the annual gross premium for a 10-year term policy: male age 50, $1M benefit. Assumptions: 0.35% annual mortality rate (age 50), 8% annual lapse rate, $120 first-year acquisition expense, $55 annual renewal expense, 4.0% discount rate, 18% target ROI. Show sensitivity if mortality worsens by 15%.
Hurricane cat loss research
Research insured loss data for Category 3+ hurricanes making US Gulf Coast landfall from 2000–2024. Show event name, year, category at landfall, insured loss in 2024 dollars. I need this to calibrate our 1-in-100-year and 1-in-250-year Florida PML estimates.
Long-term Treasury rate history
Pull the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields for each month from January 2020 to present. Show the peak rate, current rate, and average rate. I use this for updating our life insurance valuation discount rate assumptions under PBR.
Health insurance cost trend
Research commercial health insurance medical cost trend rates for 2025 and 2026 by service category: inpatient hospital, outpatient hospital, professional services, pharmacy, and behavioral health. Cite Milliman, Mercer, or Willis Towers Watson sources where available.
California seismic risk research
Research the projected 50-year earthquake risk for Los Angeles County. Include: probability of a M7.5+ event on the Southern San Andreas fault, estimated insured loss range, and any recent updates to USGS seismic hazard models that should affect P&C insurer cat model calibrations.
GLP-1 drug impact on health insurance
Look up the FDA-approved indications, average annual treatment cost, and clinical efficacy data for semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy). I need to quantify the actuarial impact of GLP-1 coverage mandates on our commercial health book.
Annuity reserve interest rate stress test
Model the reserve impact of a 150bp decline in the discount rate for a $5B portfolio of single-premium immediate annuities with an average duration of 15 years. Show: current reserve at 4.5%, reserve at 3.0%, change in dollars and percentage, and implications for RBC ratio.
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Annual assumption update study
Each year before the valuation date, research current experience data and update mortality, interest rate, and lapse assumptions for the reserve and pricing actuarial models.
New product pricing development
Before filing a new insurance product, build an actuarially sound premium with full sensitivity analysis and document the assumption basis.
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Financial CalculatorCalculate gross premium with expense loadings, ROI target, and sensitivity tables
Catastrophe exposure assessment
Annually update the catastrophe exposure analysis for nat cat perils by pulling current loss data and academic research on hazard frequency.
Frequently Asked Questions
What mortality tables do life insurance actuaries typically use?
US actuaries primarily use the 2017 CSO (Commissioners Standard Ordinary) tables for regulatory minimum reserves on individual life insurance. For company best-estimate pricing and cash flow testing, actuaries develop their own experience tables. The 2012 IAM (Individual Annuity Mortality) table is commonly used for annuities. Deep Research can pull the underlying demographic data that feeds into mortality table updates.
How does the discount rate affect life insurance reserves?
A lower discount rate increases the present value of future policyholder obligations, requiring higher reserves. The relationship is roughly: every 100bp decline in the discount rate increases reserves by approximately the duration of the liability portfolio in years (expressed as a percentage). A 12-year duration portfolio becomes ~12% more expensive to reserve when rates fall 100bp.
What data sources are best for catastrophe frequency-severity modeling?
NOAA HURDAT2 for Atlantic hurricane historical tracks and intensity data. USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps for earthquake probability. NCDC Storm Data for tornado and severe convective storm loss. For insured loss benchmarking, Insurance Information Institute, AIR Worldwide annual reports, and Lloyd's of London exposure reports are primary sources that Deep Research can compile and synthesize.
How do actuaries handle IBNR reserves for health insurance?
IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) reserves are estimated using development triangle methods — tracking how historical claim payments develop over time to project the tail of unreported claims. The key inputs are the lag between service date and claim receipt and average claims per member per month. Medical cost trend research helps project whether this year's IBNR should be higher or lower than last year's development experience.
What is the difference between gross premium reserves and net premium reserves?
Net premium reserves use only mortality and interest assumptions — they equal the present value of future benefits minus the present value of net premiums (the portion of gross premium needed to fund benefits). Gross premium reserves use the actual gross premium (including expenses and profit loading) in the calculation, which produces a more realistic estimate of the company's true liability. Principle-Based Reserves (PBR) under NAIC Model #830 requires gross premium cash flow testing.
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