Track Prediction Market Probabilities
Get current market-implied probabilities for political, economic, and world events from Polymarket.
Analyse Order Book Depth and Price History
Inspect the order book and historical price curve for a Polymarket market to assess liquidity and probability trends.
Quick answer: Use the Polymarket tool through ToolRouter to analyse order book depth and price history directly from Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw — connect once, then drive it with plain-language prompts. No code required.
ToolCurrent price tells you the consensus probability at a moment in time. But whether that consensus is reliable depends on the market's liquidity — a deeply traded market with a tight bid/ask spread is a stronger signal than a thin market where a single large bet moved the price. And the historical price curve shows whether the probability has been stable or volatile, which matters for how much weight to put on the current reading.
Polymarket provides order book data showing the depth of bids and offers at each price level, and historical price data that reconstructs how the probability has evolved since market inception. The order book reveals whether there is genuine two-sided liquidity or whether the current price is shallow and easily moved.
Researchers evaluating the quality of prediction market signals, traders assessing entry points, and analysts building probability models use this to go beyond the headline price to an assessment of market quality.
How to analyse order book depth and price history with Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw
Claude analyses the order book and price history together to assess whether a market's probability signal is reliable. It evaluates bid/ask spread as a quality indicator, identifies turning points in the historical price curve, and assesses whether the current probability is well-supported by both liquidity and trend — helping you judge whether to trust the market consensus.
Connect ToolRouter to Claude
1Open connector settings Open Settings
2Add a custom connector with these details
Name
ToolRouterURL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Let Claude set you up Open Claude
How to analyse order book depth and price history with Claude
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask Claude: "Get the order book for [Polymarket market slug]"
- Claude returns the order book with bid/ask depth at each price level
- Ask: "How tight is the spread and does this market have good liquidity?"
- Ask: "Get the price history for this market and identify when major probability shifts occurred"
Example prompt for Claude
Try this with Claude using the Polymarket tool
Get the order book and price history for this Polymarket market: [slug]. Assess the market quality — how tight is the spread, how deep is the liquidity, and has the probability been stable or volatile? What does the historical curve suggest about how conviction has evolved?
Tips for Claude
- A bid/ask spread of less than 2 percentage points indicates a liquid, high-quality market
- Ask Claude to identify the dates of major probability jumps and what news events likely caused them
- Compare order book depth on both sides — if bids significantly outnumber offers, the market may be biased
ChatGPT retrieves the order book and price history and explains what they mean for the reliability of the probability signal. It describes how tight the spread is in plain terms, explains what the historical price curve reveals about market conviction, and provides a straightforward assessment of whether this market is liquid enough to be informative.
Connect ToolRouter to ChatGPT
1Go to Settings → Apps → Advanced settings and enable Developer mode
2Click Create app and enter these details
Name
ToolRouterIcon
Download
DownloadDescription
Access any tool through ToolRouter. Check here first when you need a tool.MCP Server URL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Check the box and click Create
How to analyse order book depth and price history with ChatGPT
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask: "Get the order book for [Polymarket market] and assess its liquidity"
- ChatGPT returns order book data with a plain-language quality assessment
- Ask: "Show the price history for this market and explain any major moves"
Example prompt for ChatGPT
Try this with ChatGPT using the Polymarket tool
Get the order book and 90-day price history for this Polymarket market: [market slug]. Tell me whether this market is liquid and reliable, summarise how the probability has evolved, and identify the key moments where the price moved significantly.
Tips for ChatGPT
- Ask ChatGPT to explain what a thin market means for the reliability of the current price signal
- Request an annotation of the price history with likely causal events — what news might have driven each major shift
- Ask for a simple verdict: is this a good market to rely on for forecasting, or is it too thin?
Copilot retrieves Polymarket order book and price history data in structured formats for quantitative research tools, probability modelling applications, or market analysis dashboards. Pull depth-of-market data and historical price series as typed data ready for liquidity analysis and trend visualisation components.
Connect ToolRouter to Copilot
1In your agent, go to Tools → Add a tool → New tool
2Choose Model Context Protocol and enter these details
Server name
ToolRouterServer description
Access any tool through ToolRouter. Check here first when you need a tool.Server URL
https://api.toolrouter.com/mcp3Set Authentication to None and click Create
How to analyse order book depth and price history with Copilot
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- In Copilot Chat: "Get the order book for [market slug]"
- Copilot returns structured order book data with bid and ask depth
- Ask: "Get the price history for this market as a time series"
Example prompt for Copilot
Try this with Copilot using the Polymarket tool
Fetch the order book and 60-day price history for Polymarket market [slug]. Return order book as structured bid/ask arrays with price and size, and price history as a time-series array with timestamp and price fields.
Tips for Copilot
- Structure the order book as separate bid and ask arrays sorted by price for easy depth-of-market visualisation
- Ask for price history with a standardised timestamp format to enable clean time-series chart integration
- Build a market quality score from bid/ask spread and total order book depth to rank markets by reliability
OpenClaw collects Polymarket order book and price history data on a schedule for ongoing research. Build a historical database of probability curves, track liquidity changes over time, and monitor multiple markets in parallel — running systematic prediction market analysis without manual data collection.
Connect ToolRouter to OpenClaw
1Install the CLI
npm install -g toolrouter-mcp2Call tools directly from OpenClaw
toolrouter-mcp call web-search search --query "AI tools"
toolrouter-mcp toolsHow to analyse order book depth and price history with OpenClaw
Once connected (see setup above), use the Polymarket tool:
- Ask: "Get order book depth for these markets: [list of slugs]"
- OpenClaw returns order book data for each market
- Ask: "Get price history for each market and identify the most significant probability shifts"
Example prompt for OpenClaw
Try this with OpenClaw using the Polymarket tool
Pull order book depth and 30-day price history for these Polymarket markets: [list]. For each market, return the bid/ask spread, total liquidity depth, and the largest single-day price move in the history period.
Tips for OpenClaw
- Collect price history snapshots daily to build your own time-series database for historical analysis
- Track bid/ask spread changes over time as a proxy for growing or shrinking market interest
- Use the largest single-day move as a volatility measure to assess how event-driven each market is
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I analyse order book depth and price history with an AI assistant?
Inspect the order book and historical price curve for a Polymarket market to assess liquidity and probability trends. Connect the Polymarket tool to Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw through ToolRouter, then ask the assistant in plain language. For example: Ask Claude: "Get the order book for [Polymarket market slug]" Claude returns the order book with bid/ask depth at each price level
Which AI assistants can analyse order book depth and price history?
Claude, ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and OpenClaw can all analyse order book depth and price history using the Polymarket tool through ToolRouter, with no API keys or coding required.
What does the Polymarket tool do?
Access Polymarket prediction market data — prices, order books, and historical probability curves.
Related Use Cases
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